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Model

High ticket, one time offer, single founder $10k -14 days sales cycle, 365 day collection - 90% gross margin, outbound only copy  

Created: 2021-04-02, 03:11:19 AM Last Updated: 2021-04-04, 12:48:29 AM
By: Nick Kozmin
Score: 0

Customers vs. Time

Total amount of customers through time.

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Revenue, Earnings, Cash vs. Time

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Monthly Free Cash Flow vs. Time

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Share Price vs. Time - starting day 365

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New Outbound Customers vs. Time

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New Inbound Customers vs. Time

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New Renewal Customers vs. Time

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Inputs
Starting State
cash_in_bank $30,000.00
assets $0.00
liabilities $0.00
customer_count 10
Product
realization_rate 95.0 %
price_of_offer $4,500.00
cost_to_fulfill 20.0 %
time_to_collect 30 Days
refund_period 30 Days
refund_rate 1.0 %
initial contract length/time to renew 365 Days
Renewals
churn_rate 100.0 %
Sales and Martketing
cost_to_sell 15.0 %
time_to_sell 7 Days
Granular
granular true
Outbound
outbound_salary $1,000.00
number_of_contacts_per_month per sdr 400
number_of_sdrs 1
outbound_contact_to_lead_conversion_rate 2.0 %
time_to_market_outbound 11 Days
lead_to_customer_conversion_rate_outbound 14.97 %
Inbound
media_spend $0.17
Cost per thousand impressions $23.00
Click-through rate 0.6 %
funnel_conversion_rate 2.0 %
time_to_market_inbound 7 Days
lead_to_customer_conversion_rate_inbound 5.0 %
Organic
organic_views_per_month 23
organic_view_to_lead_conversion_rate 23.0 %
lead_to_customer_conversion_rate_organic 23.0 %
time_to_market_organic 23 Days
Administration
transaction_fee 2.9 %
fixed_costs_per_month $3,000.00
fixed_cost_increase_per_hundred_customers per month $0.00
upfront_investment_costs $0.00
debt $0.00
interest_rate 0.0 %
fcf_left_in_company 80.0 %
Viral Component
viral_component false
Valuations
tax_rate 22.0 %
inflation_rate 2.0 %
time_max 2500 Days
number_of_shares 1,000,000 Shares
DCF Method
projection_period_dcf 1825 Days
discount_rate 9.0 %
growth_rate 2.0 %
EBITDA Multiple Method
enterprise_multiple_ebitda 8.0
projection_period_ebitda 1825 Days
P/E Method
pe_multiple 18.0
projection_period_pe 1825 Days
Revenue Multiple Method
ev_revenue_multiple 5.0
projection_period_ev_revenue 365 Days
Outputs
Product
@expected_value_of_offer_price

The average amount of money you actually collect from the client (after transaction fees).

$4,151.03
@cost_to_fulfill_dollars $830.21
@cost_to_market_dollars $414.22
@cost_to_sell_dollars $622.65
Granular
Outbound
@outbound_salary_per_day $32.88
@number_of_contacts_per_day_per_sdr 13.15 Contacts
@total_salary per day $32.88
@cost_per_100_contacts $250.00
@outbound_contacts_dot per day

Total number of contacts sent by all SDRs per day.

13.15 Contacts
@cost_per_lead_outbound $125.00
@lead_dot_outbound per day

Number of outbound leads created per month.

0.26 Leads
@lead_dot_outbound per month

Number of outbound leads created per month.

8.0 Leads
@c_dot_outbound per day rounded

Number of new customers created per month from outbound efforts.

0 Customers
@c_dot_outbound per month rounded

Number of new customers created per month from outbound efforts.

1 Customers
Inbound
@media_spend_per_day

Amount spent on paid advertising per day.

$0.01
@views_dot per day

Number of impressions per day from paid sources.

0.0
@lead_dot_inbound per day

Number of new leads per day created from inbound efforts.

0.0 Leads
@lead_dot_inbound per month

Number of new leads per day created from inbound efforts.

0.0 Leads
@cost_per_lead_inbound $0.00
@c_dot_inbound per day rounded

Number of new customers generated per month from inbound efforts.

0 Customers
@c_dot_inbound per month rounded

Number of new customers generated per month from inbound efforts.

0 Customers
Organic
@organic_views_per_day per day 0.76
@organic_views_per_month per month (input) 23
@lead_dot_organic per day 0.17 Leads
@lead_dot_organic per month 5.29 Leads
@c_dot_organic per day rounded 0 Customers
@c_dot_organic per month rounded 1 Customers
Blended
@blended_lead_dot per day

Number of new leads created per month from both inbound and outbound efforts.

0.44 Leads
@blended_lead_dot per month

Number of new leads created per month from both inbound and outbound efforts.

13.29 Leads
@outbound_lead_ratio

Ratio of outbound leads to inbound leads.

60.2 %
@inbound_lead_ratio 0.0 %
@organic_lead_ratio 39.8 %
@blended_cost_per_lead

Average cost per lead from both inbound and outbound methods.

$75.25
@blended_lead_conversion_rate

Average conversion rate from both inbound and outbound methods.

18.17 %
@c_dot_blended per day rounded

Average number of new customers per month from both inbound and outbound methods.

0 Customers
@c_dot_blended per month rounded

Average number of new customers per month from both inbound and outbound methods.

2 Customers
@time_to_market_blended

Average amount of time to generate a lead from both inbound and outbound methods.

16.0 Days
@cost_to_market_blended

Average cost to generate a lead from both inbound and outbound methods.

$414.22
@cost_per_acquisition $1,036.88
@contribution_after_marketing $2,283.94
@contribution_margin_before_marketing 80.0 %
@contribution_margin_after_marketing 55.02 %
@profit_per_customer_per_day $43.09
@profit_per_customer_per_month

Profit per customer per unit of sales cycle length.

$1,310.47
@customer_acquisition_rate_per_day rounded 0 Customers
@customer_acquisition_rate_per_month rounded 2 Customers
Administration
@fixed_costs_per_day $98.65
@fixed_costs_per_month (input)

The average monthly fixed costs for the business. This includes rent, computers, founder salaries, engineer salaries, etc.

$3,000.00
@fixed_cost_increase_per_hundred_customers_per_day $0.00
@cost_of_debt_daily $0.00
@cost_of_debt_monthly $0.00
Valuations
@projection_period_dcf (input)

The time period in which the cash flows are summed and discounted in the DCF model.

1,825 Days
@fct_projection_period $63.89
@int_fct_projection_period $23,318.78
@terminal_value $307,453.68
@int_pv_fcf_projection_period $137,866.81
@dcf_enterprise_value $445,320.49
@dcf_market_cap

The Market cap of the company, derived using Discounted Cash Flow valuation method. Market cap is defined as Enterprise Value+cash-debt.

$475,320.49
@number_of_shares (input)

The number of shares of the business issued as defined in the shareholder agreement.

1,000,000 Shares
@share_price

Price of a share, derived from DCF Market cap.

$0.48
@ebitda_multiple_market_cap $245,814.89
@ebitda_multiple_market_cap_fcf $358,085.69
@pe_multiple_market_cap $1,100,441.55
@ev_revenue_multiple_market_cap $334,370.36
@c_consumption

The minimum point on the Cash graph. In reality this is additional amount of money needed to raise, for company not to go bankrupt. This is observed only on the projection period.

$0.00
@t_profitability_day

Month in which the first day with a positive Free Cash Flow exists. If First positive FCF day is day 40, then t profitability day is 2 months.

23 Days
@t_profitability_month

Month in which the first day with a positive Free Cash Flow exists. If First positive FCF day is day 40, then t profitability day is 2 months.

1 Month
@positive_total_cash_day 0 Day
@positive_total_cash_month 0 Month
@cash below $0 day

The day at which the cash function intersects with x axis - the first point in time in days, where cash equals $0,

Cash is never $0
@additional_debt No additional debt needed
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