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Conversions. Modeling for Royal Rentals

By: Dylan Warter
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Monthly Free Cash Flow vs. Time

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Revenue, Earnings, Cash, Tax vs. Time

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Customers vs. Time

Total amount of customers through time.

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New Renewal Customers vs. Time

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Share Price vs. Time - starting day 365

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New Outbound Customers vs. Time

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New Inbound Customers vs. Time

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New Viral Customers vs. Time

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Inputs
Starting State
cash_in_bank $50,000.00
assets $0.00
liabilities $0.00
customer_count 7
Product
realization_rate 100.0 %
price_of_offer $5,000.00
cost_to_fulfill 4.0 %
time_to_collect 7 Days
refund_period 30 Days
refund_rate 1.0 %
initial contract length/time to renew 730 Days
Renewals
churn_rate 50.0 %
price_of_renewal $5,000.00
cost_to_sell_renewal 0.0 %
cost_to_fulfill_renewal 4.0 %
time_to_collect_renewal 7 Days
renewal_rate_of_renewals 50.0 %
Sales and Martketing
cost_to_sell 15.0 %
time_to_sell 14 Days
average_deals_per_sales_rep_per_month 1.0
Granular
granular true
Outbound
outbound_salary $0.00
number_of_contacts_per_month per sdr 100
number_of_sdrs 1
outbound_contact_to_lead_conversion_rate 20.0 %
time_to_market_outbound 1 Days
lead_to_customer_conversion_rate_outbound 1.0 %
Inbound
media_spend $1,000.00
Cost per thousand impressions $100.00
Click-through rate 5.0 %
funnel_conversion_rate 2.0 %
time_to_market_inbound 1 Days
lead_to_customer_conversion_rate_inbound 30.0 %
Administration
transaction_fee 2.9 %
fixed_costs_per_month $2,500.00
fixed_cost_increase_per_hundred_customers per month $2,500.00
upfront_investment_costs $0.00
debt $1,200,000.00
interest_rate 8.0 %
Viral Component
viral_component true
invites_per_customer 2.0
conversion_rate_per_invite 50.0
viral_time 30 Days
viral_start 30 Days
cost_to_sell_viral 10.0 %
cost_to_market_viral 10.0 %
Valuations
tax_rate 22.0 %
inflation_rate 2.0 %
time_max 2500 Days
number_of_shares 1,000,000 Shares
DCF Method
projection_period_dcf 1825 Days
discount_rate 9.0 %
growth_rate 2.0 %
EBITDA Multiple Method
enterprise_multiple_ebitda 12.0
projection_period_ebitda 365 Days
P/E Method
pe_multiple 22.0
projection_period_pe 365 Days
Revenue Multiple Method
ev_revenue_multiple 7.0
projection_period_ev_revenue 365 Days
Outputs
Product and Acquisition
@expected_value_of_offer_price $4,855.00
@cost_to_fulfill_dollars $194.20
@cost_to_market_dollars $312.53
@cost_to_sell_dollars $728.25
@customer_acquisition_cost $1,040.78
@expected_value_of_renewal_price $4,855.00
@cost_to_fulfill_renewal_dollars $200.00
@lifetime_value $10,000.00
Renewals
@cost_to_sell_renewal_dollars $0.00
@renewal_profit_per_customer_per_day $665.00
@renewal_profit_per_customer_per_month $20,222.65
Business Modelling
Granular
Outbound
@outbound_salary_per_day $0.00
@number_of_contacts_per_day_per_sdr 3.29 Contacts
@total_salary per day $0.00
@cost_per_100_contacts $0.00
@outbound_contacts_dot per day 3.29 Contacts
@cost_per_lead_outbound $0.00
@lead_dot_outbound per day 0.66 Leads
@lead_dot_outbound per month 20.0 Leads
@c_dot_outbound per day rounded 0.01 Customers
@c_dot_outbound per month rounded 0.2 Customers
@outbound_cost_per_customer $0.00
Inbound
@media_spend_per_day $32.88
@lead_dot_inbound per day 0.33 Leads
@lead_dot_inbound per month 10.0 Leads
@cost_per_lead_inbound $100.01
@c_dot_inbound per day rounded 0.1 Customers
@c_dot_inbound per month rounded 3.0 Customers
@cost_per_click $2.00
@inbound_cost_per_customer $0.00
Blended
@blended_lead_dot per day 0.99 Leads
@blended_lead_dot per month 30.0 Leads
@outbound_lead_ratio 66.67 %
@inbound_lead_ratio 33.33 %
@organic_lead_ratio 0.0 %
@blended_cost_per_lead $33.33
@blended_lead_conversion_rate 10.67 %
@c_dot_blended per day rounded 0.11 Customers
@c_dot_blended per month rounded 3.2 Customers
@time_to_market_blended 1.0 Days
@cost_to_market_blended $312.53
@customer_acquisition_cost $1,040.78
@contribution_after_marketing $3,620.02
@contribution_margin_before_marketing 96.0 %
@contribution_margin_after_marketing 74.56 %
@profit_per_customer_per_day $164.55
@customer_acquisition_rate_per_day rounded 0.11 Customers
@customer_acquisition_rate_per_month rounded 3.2 Customers
@sales_reps_needed 4
Viral Component
@k_value 1.0
@cost_to_sell_viral_dollars $485.50
@cost_to_market_viral_dollars $485.50
@viral_profit_per_customer_per_day $527.11
@viral_profit_per_customer_per_month $16,029.55
Administration
@fixed_costs_per_day $82.21
@fixed_costs_per_month (input) $2,500.00
@fixed_cost_increase_per_hundred_customers_per_day $82.21
@cost_of_debt_daily $263.01
@cost_of_debt_monthly $7,998.25
Valuations
@projection_period_dcf (input) 1,825 Days
@fct_projection_period $62,416.25
@int_fct_projection_period $25,887,667.82
@terminal_value $341,323,979.66
@int_pv_fcf_projection_period $53,734,405.40
@DCF_enterprise_value $395,058,385.06
@DCF_equity_value $393,908,385.06
@number_of_shares (input) 1,000,000 Shares
@share_price $393.91
@ebitda_multiple_market_cap $35,143,193.78
@ebitda_multiple_market_cap_fcf $38,165,861.30
@pe_multiple_market_cap $72,431,753.07
@ev_revenue_multiple_market_cap $22,262,375.98
@c_consumption $0.00
@t_profitability_day 4 Days
@t_profitability_month 1 Month
@positive_total_cash_day 0 Day
@positive_total_cash_month 0 Month
@cash below $0 day Cash is never $0
@additional_debt No additional debt needed
@return_on_starting_cash_day_365
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