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High-Ticket Funnel Simulation Demo

By: Nick Kozmin
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Monthly Free Cash Flow vs. Time

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Revenue, Earnings, Cash, Tax vs. Time

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Customers vs. Time

Total amount of customers through time.

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New Renewal Customers vs. Time

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Share Price vs. Time - starting day 365

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New Outbound Customers vs. Time

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New Inbound Customers vs. Time

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Inputs
Starting State
cash_in_bank $122,999.98
assets $0.00
liabilities $0.00
customer_count 1
Product
realization_rate 93.0 %
price_of_offer $15,000.00
cost_to_fulfill 10.0 %
time_to_collect 365 Days
refund_period 60 Days
refund_rate 2.0 %
initial contract length/time to renew 365 Days
Renewals
churn_rate 50.0 %
price_of_renewal $10,000.00
cost_to_sell_renewal 5.0 %
cost_to_fulfill_renewal 10.0 %
time_to_collect_renewal 365 Days
renewal_rate_of_renewals 50.0 %
Sales and Martketing
cost_to_sell 12.0 %
time_to_sell 14 Days
average_deals_per_sales_rep_per_month 1.0
Granular
granular true
Outbound
outbound_salary $3,000.00
number_of_contacts_per_month per sdr 2000
number_of_sdrs 3
outbound_contact_to_lead_conversion_rate 2.0 %
time_to_market_outbound 11 Days
lead_to_customer_conversion_rate_outbound 8.0 %
Inbound
media_spend $100,000.00
Cost per thousand impressions $81.00
Click-through rate 1.0 %
funnel_conversion_rate 3.0 %
time_to_market_inbound 1 Days
lead_to_customer_conversion_rate_inbound 8.0 %
Administration
transaction_fee 2.9 %
fixed_costs_per_month $15,000.00
fixed_cost_increase_per_hundred_customers per month $10,000.00
upfront_investment_costs $0.00
debt $0.00
interest_rate 6.0 %
Viral Component
viral_component false
Valuations
tax_rate 21.5 %
inflation_rate 2.0 %
time_max 2500 Days
number_of_shares 1,000,000 Shares
DCF Method
projection_period_dcf 1825 Days
discount_rate 9.0 %
growth_rate 2.0 %
EBITDA Multiple Method
enterprise_multiple_ebitda 14.0
projection_period_ebitda 365 Days
P/E Method
pe_multiple 22.0
projection_period_pe 365 Days
Revenue Multiple Method
ev_revenue_multiple 7.0
projection_period_ev_revenue 365 Days
Outputs
Product and Acquisition
@expected_value_of_offer_price $13,545.45
@cost_to_fulfill_dollars $1,354.55
@cost_to_market_dollars $2,778.51
@cost_to_sell_dollars $1,625.45
@customer_acquisition_cost $4,403.97
@expected_value_of_renewal_price $9,030.30
@cost_to_fulfill_renewal_dollars $1,000.00
@lifetime_value $23,250.00
Renewals
@cost_to_sell_renewal_dollars $500.00
@renewal_profit_per_customer_per_day $20.63
@renewal_profit_per_customer_per_month $627.39
Business Modelling
Granular
Outbound
@outbound_salary_per_day $98.65
@number_of_contacts_per_day_per_sdr 65.77 Contacts
@total_salary per day $295.96
@cost_per_100_contacts $150.00
@outbound_contacts_dot per day 197.3 Contacts
@cost_per_lead_outbound $75.00
@lead_dot_outbound per day 3.95 Leads
@lead_dot_outbound per month 120.0 Leads
@c_dot_outbound per day rounded 0.32 Customers
@c_dot_outbound per month rounded 9.6 Customers
@outbound_cost_per_customer $0.00
Inbound
@media_spend_per_day $3,288.39
@lead_dot_inbound per day 12.18 Leads
@lead_dot_inbound per month 370.37 Leads
@cost_per_lead_inbound $270.00
@c_dot_inbound per day rounded 0.97 Customers
@c_dot_inbound per month rounded 29.63 Customers
@cost_per_click $8.10
@inbound_cost_per_customer $0.00
Blended
@blended_lead_dot per day 16.13 Leads
@blended_lead_dot per month 490.37 Leads
@outbound_lead_ratio 24.47 %
@inbound_lead_ratio 75.53 %
@organic_lead_ratio 0.0 %
@blended_cost_per_lead $222.28
@blended_lead_conversion_rate 8.0 %
@c_dot_blended per day rounded 1.29 Customers
@c_dot_blended per month rounded 39.23 Customers
@time_to_market_blended 3.0 Days
@cost_to_market_blended $2,778.51
@customer_acquisition_cost $4,403.97
@contribution_after_marketing $7,786.94
@contribution_margin_before_marketing 90.0 %
@contribution_margin_after_marketing 57.49 %
@profit_per_customer_per_day $20.38
@customer_acquisition_rate_per_day rounded 1.29 Customers
@customer_acquisition_rate_per_month rounded 39.23 Customers
@sales_reps_needed 0
Administration
@fixed_costs_per_day $493.26
@fixed_costs_per_month (input) $15,000.00
@fixed_cost_increase_per_hundred_customers_per_day $328.84
@cost_of_debt_daily $0.00
@cost_of_debt_monthly $0.00
Valuations
@projection_period_dcf (input) 1,825 Days
@fct_projection_period $9,677.59
@int_fct_projection_period $3,459,219.55
@terminal_value $45,609,152.26
@int_pv_fcf_projection_period $13,534,829.63
@DCF_enterprise_value $59,143,981.89
@DCF_equity_value $59,266,981.87
@number_of_shares (input) 1,000,000 Shares
@share_price $59.27
@ebitda_multiple_market_cap $16,309,517.63
@ebitda_multiple_market_cap_fcf $17,777,726.14
@pe_multiple_market_cap $37,593,096.14
@ev_revenue_multiple_market_cap $12,045,303.30
@c_consumption $0.00
@t_profitability_day 22 Days
@t_profitability_month 1 Month
@positive_total_cash_day 0 Day
@positive_total_cash_month 0 Month
@cash below $0 day Cash is never $0
@additional_debt No additional debt needed
@return_on_starting_cash_day_365
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