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High-Ticket Funnel Viral effect k value <1

By: Nikola Djokovic
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Monthly Free Cash Flow vs. Time

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Revenue, Earnings, Cash, Tax vs. Time

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Customers vs. Time

Total amount of customers through time.

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New Renewal Customers vs. Time

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Share Price vs. Time - starting day 365

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New Viral Customers vs. Time

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Inputs
Starting State
cash_in_bank $0.00
assets $0.00
liabilities $0.00
customer_count 0
Product
realization_rate 93.0 %
price_of_offer $15,000.00
cost_to_fulfill 10.0 %
time_to_collect 365 Days
refund_period 60 Days
refund_rate 0.0 %
initial contract length/time to renew 365 Days
Renewals
churn_rate 100.0 %
Sales and Martketing
cost_to_sell 12.0 %
time_to_sell 14 Days
average_deals_per_sales_rep_per_month 1.0
Non-Granular
customer_acquisition_rate_per_month 5
cost_to_market 20.0 %
time_to_market 2 Days
Granular
granular false
Administration
transaction_fee 2.9 %
fixed_costs_per_month $5,000.00
fixed_cost_increase_per_hundred_customers per month $0.00
upfront_investment_costs $0.00
debt $0.00
interest_rate 6.0 %
Viral Component
viral_component true
invites_per_customer 8.0
conversion_rate_per_invite 10.0
viral_time 15 Days
viral_start 0 Days
cost_to_sell_viral 15.0 %
cost_to_market_viral 10.0 %
Valuations
tax_rate 21.5 %
inflation_rate 2.0 %
time_max 2500 Days
number_of_shares 1,000,000 Shares
DCF Method
projection_period_dcf 1825 Days
discount_rate 9.0 %
growth_rate 2.0 %
EBITDA Multiple Method
enterprise_multiple_ebitda 14.0
projection_period_ebitda 1825 Days
P/E Method
pe_multiple 22.0
projection_period_pe 1825 Days
Revenue Multiple Method
ev_revenue_multiple 7.0
projection_period_ev_revenue 1825 Days
Outputs
Product and Acquisition
@expected_value_of_offer_price $13,545.45
@cost_to_fulfill_dollars $1,354.55
@cost_to_market_dollars $2,709.09
@cost_to_sell_dollars $1,625.45
@customer_acquisition_cost $4,334.54
@lifetime_value $13,950.00
Business Modelling
Granular
Blended
@customer_acquisition_cost $4,334.54
@contribution_after_marketing $7,856.36
@contribution_margin_before_marketing 90.0 %
@contribution_margin_after_marketing 58.0 %
@profit_per_customer_per_day $20.62
@customer_acquisition_rate_per_day rounded 0.16 Customers
@customer_acquisition_rate_per_month rounded 5.0 Customers
Viral Component
@k_value 0.8
@cost_to_sell_viral_dollars $2,031.82
@cost_to_market_viral_dollars $1,354.55
@viral_profit_per_customer_per_day $24.12
@viral_profit_per_customer_per_month $733.55
Administration
@fixed_costs_per_day $164.42
@fixed_costs_per_month (input) $5,000.00
@fixed_cost_increase_per_hundred_customers_per_day $0.00
@cost_of_debt_daily $0.00
@cost_of_debt_monthly $0.00
Valuations
@projection_period_dcf (input) 1,825 Days
@fct_projection_period $5,629.11
@int_fct_projection_period $2,054,623.70
@terminal_value $27,089,822.96
@int_pv_fcf_projection_period $8,337,974.62
@DCF_enterprise_value $35,427,797.58
@DCF_equity_value $35,427,797.58
@number_of_shares (input) 1,000,000 Shares
@share_price $35.43
@ebitda_multiple_market_cap $33,065,183.03
@ebitda_multiple_market_cap_fcf $42,458,492.36
@pe_multiple_market_cap $53,150,950.83
@ev_revenue_multiple_market_cap $16,911,666.17
@c_consumption $2,981.57
@t_profitability_day 32 Days
@t_profitability_month 2 Months
@positive_total_cash_day 60 Days
@positive_total_cash_month 2 Months
@cash below $0 day Day 1
@additional_debt -$2,981.57
@return_on_starting_cash_day_365
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