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High ticket, one time offer, single founder $10k -14 days sales cycle, 90 day collection - 60% gross margin, outbound only copy

By: Nick Kozmin
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Monthly Free Cash Flow vs. Time

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Revenue, Earnings, Cash, Tax vs. Time

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Customers vs. Time

Total amount of customers through time.

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New Renewal Customers vs. Time

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Share Price vs. Time - starting day 365

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New Inbound Customers vs. Time

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Inputs
Starting State
cash_in_bank $20,000.00
assets $0.00
liabilities $0.00
customer_count 100
Product
realization_rate 93.0 %
price_of_offer $10,000.00
cost_to_fulfill 10.0 %
time_to_collect 90 Days
refund_period 60 Days
refund_rate 1.0 %
initial contract length/time to renew 365 Days
Renewals
churn_rate 50.0 %
price_of_renewal $7,000.00
cost_to_sell_renewal 5.0 %
cost_to_fulfill_renewal 0.0 %
time_to_collect_renewal 365 Days
renewal_rate_of_renewals 50.0 %
Sales and Martketing
cost_to_sell 0.0 %
time_to_sell 14 Days
average_deals_per_sales_rep_per_month 1.0
Granular
granular true
Inbound
media_spend $30,000.00
Cost per thousand impressions $25.00
Click-through rate 0.7 %
funnel_conversion_rate 2.0 %
time_to_market_inbound 1 Days
lead_to_customer_conversion_rate_inbound 8.0 %
Administration
transaction_fee 2.9 %
fixed_costs_per_month $80,000.00
fixed_cost_increase_per_hundred_customers per month $0.00
upfront_investment_costs $20,000.00
debt $0.00
interest_rate 6.0 %
Viral Component
viral_component false
Valuations
tax_rate 22.0 %
inflation_rate 2.0 %
time_max 2500 Days
number_of_shares 1,000,000 Shares
DCF Method
projection_period_dcf 1825 Days
discount_rate 9.0 %
growth_rate 2.0 %
EBITDA Multiple Method
enterprise_multiple_ebitda 8.0
projection_period_ebitda 1825 Days
P/E Method
pe_multiple 18.0
projection_period_pe 1825 Days
Revenue Multiple Method
ev_revenue_multiple 5.0
projection_period_ev_revenue 1825 Days
Outputs
Product and Acquisition
@expected_value_of_offer_price $9,030.30
@cost_to_fulfill_dollars $903.03
@cost_to_market_dollars $2,232.14
@cost_to_sell_dollars $0.00
@customer_acquisition_cost $2,232.14
@expected_value_of_renewal_price $6,321.21
@cost_to_fulfill_renewal_dollars $0.00
@lifetime_value $15,810.00
Renewals
@cost_to_sell_renewal_dollars $350.00
@renewal_profit_per_customer_per_day $16.36
@renewal_profit_per_customer_per_month $497.49
Business Modelling
Granular
Inbound
@media_spend_per_day $986.52
@lead_dot_inbound per day 5.52 Leads
@lead_dot_inbound per month 168.0 Leads
@cost_per_lead_inbound $178.57
@c_dot_inbound per day rounded 0.44 Customers
@c_dot_inbound per month rounded 13.44 Customers
@cost_per_click $3.57
@inbound_cost_per_customer $0.00
Blended
@blended_lead_dot per day 5.52 Leads
@blended_lead_dot per month 168.0 Leads
@outbound_lead_ratio 0.0 %
@inbound_lead_ratio 100.0 %
@organic_lead_ratio 0.0 %
@blended_cost_per_lead $178.57
@blended_lead_conversion_rate 8.0 %
@c_dot_blended per day rounded 0.44 Customers
@c_dot_blended per month rounded 13.44 Customers
@time_to_market_blended 1.0 Days
@cost_to_market_blended $2,232.14
@customer_acquisition_cost $2,232.14
@contribution_after_marketing $5,895.13
@contribution_margin_before_marketing 90.0 %
@contribution_margin_after_marketing 65.28 %
@profit_per_customer_per_day $56.14
@customer_acquisition_rate_per_day rounded 0.44 Customers
@customer_acquisition_rate_per_month rounded 13.44 Customers
@sales_reps_needed 0
Administration
@fixed_costs_per_day $2,630.71
@fixed_costs_per_month (input) $80,000.00
@fixed_cost_increase_per_hundred_customers_per_day $0.00
@cost_of_debt_daily $0.00
@cost_of_debt_monthly $0.00
Valuations
@projection_period_dcf (input) 1,825 Days
@fct_projection_period $1,921.88
@int_fct_projection_period $709,530.86
@terminal_value $9,355,029.53
@int_pv_fcf_projection_period $2,116,389.44
@DCF_enterprise_value $11,471,418.97
@DCF_equity_value $11,491,418.97
@number_of_shares (input) 1,000,000 Shares
@share_price $11.49
@ebitda_multiple_market_cap $6,364,605.94
@ebitda_multiple_market_cap_fcf $8,435,490.18
@pe_multiple_market_cap $29,891,577.79
@ev_revenue_multiple_market_cap $8,317,660.50
@c_consumption $55,571.08
@t_profitability_day 91 Days
@t_profitability_month 3 Months
@positive_total_cash_day 282 Days
@positive_total_cash_month 10 Months
@cash below $0 day Day 1
@additional_debt -$55,571.08
@return_on_starting_cash_day_365
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