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JW-JS coaching model 1

By: James Watson
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Monthly Free Cash Flow vs. Time

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Revenue, Earnings, Cash, Tax vs. Time

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Customers vs. Time

Total amount of customers through time.

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New Renewal Customers vs. Time

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Share Price vs. Time - starting day 365

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New Outbound Customers vs. Time

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New Inbound Customers vs. Time

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New Viral Customers vs. Time

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Inputs
Starting State
cash_in_bank $10,000.00
assets $0.00
liabilities $0.00
customer_count 0
Product
realization_rate 90.0 %
price_of_offer $8,000.00
cost_to_fulfill 10.0 %
time_to_collect 30 Days
refund_period 60 Days
refund_rate 2.0 %
initial contract length/time to renew 365 Days
Renewals
churn_rate 100.0 %
Sales and Martketing
cost_to_sell 20.0 %
time_to_sell 20 Days
average_deals_per_sales_rep_per_month 4.0
Granular
granular true
Outbound
outbound_salary $0.00
number_of_contacts_per_month per sdr 2000
number_of_sdrs 4
outbound_contact_to_lead_conversion_rate 2.0 %
time_to_market_outbound 11 Days
lead_to_customer_conversion_rate_outbound 8.0 %
Inbound
media_spend $5,000.00
Cost per thousand impressions $55.00
Click-through rate 1.0 %
funnel_conversion_rate 2.0 %
time_to_market_inbound 1 Days
lead_to_customer_conversion_rate_inbound 8.0 %
Organic
organic_views_per_month 5000
organic_view_to_lead_conversion_rate 2.0 %
lead_to_customer_conversion_rate_organic 10.0 %
time_to_market_organic 30 Days
organic_cost_per_month $0.00
Administration
transaction_fee 2.9 %
fixed_costs_per_month $20,000.00
fixed_cost_increase_per_hundred_customers per month $1,000.00
upfront_investment_costs $5,000.00
debt $0.00
interest_rate 6.0 %
Viral Component
viral_component true
invites_per_customer 1.0
conversion_rate_per_invite 5.0
viral_time 20 Days
viral_start 0 Days
cost_to_sell_viral 15.0 %
cost_to_market_viral 10.0 %
Valuations
tax_rate 22.0 %
inflation_rate 2.0 %
time_max 2500 Days
number_of_shares 1,000,000 Shares
DCF Method
projection_period_dcf 1825 Days
discount_rate 9.0 %
growth_rate 2.0 %
EBITDA Multiple Method
enterprise_multiple_ebitda 3.0
projection_period_ebitda 1825 Days
P/E Method
pe_multiple 3.0
projection_period_pe 1825 Days
Revenue Multiple Method
ev_revenue_multiple 3.0
projection_period_ev_revenue 1825 Days
Outputs
Product and Acquisition
@expected_value_of_offer_price $6,991.20
@cost_to_fulfill_dollars $699.12
@cost_to_market_dollars $206.25
@cost_to_sell_dollars $1,398.24
@customer_acquisition_cost $1,604.49
@lifetime_value $7,200.00
Business Modelling
Granular
Outbound
@outbound_salary_per_day $0.00
@number_of_contacts_per_day_per_sdr 65.77 Contacts
@total_salary per day $0.00
@cost_per_100_contacts $0.00
@outbound_contacts_dot per day 263.07 Contacts
@cost_per_lead_outbound $0.00
@lead_dot_outbound per day 5.26 Leads
@lead_dot_outbound per month 160.0 Leads
@c_dot_outbound per day rounded 0.42 Customers
@c_dot_outbound per month rounded 12.8 Customers
@outbound_cost_per_customer $0.00
Inbound
@media_spend_per_day $164.42
@lead_dot_inbound per day 0.6 Leads
@lead_dot_inbound per month 18.18 Leads
@cost_per_lead_inbound $275.00
@c_dot_inbound per day rounded 0.05 Customers
@c_dot_inbound per month rounded 1.45 Customers
@cost_per_click $5.50
@inbound_cost_per_customer $0.00
Organic
@organic_views_per_day per day 164.42
@organic_views_per_month per month (input) 5000
@lead_dot_organic per day 3.29 Leads
@lead_dot_organic per month 100.0 Leads
@c_dot_organic per day rounded 0.33 Customers
@c_dot_organic per month rounded 10.0 Customers
@organic_cost_per_month (input) $0.00
@organic_cost_per_day $0.00
@organic_cost_per_lead $0.00
@organic_cost_per_customer $0.00
Blended
@blended_lead_dot per day 9.15 Leads
@blended_lead_dot per month 278.18 Leads
@outbound_lead_ratio 57.52 %
@inbound_lead_ratio 6.54 %
@organic_lead_ratio 35.95 %
@blended_cost_per_lead $17.98
@blended_lead_conversion_rate 8.72 %
@c_dot_blended per day rounded 0.8 Customers
@c_dot_blended per month rounded 24.26 Customers
@time_to_market_blended 17.0 Days
@cost_to_market_blended $206.25
@customer_acquisition_cost $1,604.49
@contribution_after_marketing $4,687.59
@contribution_margin_before_marketing 90.0 %
@contribution_margin_after_marketing 67.05 %
@profit_per_customer_per_day $69.96
@customer_acquisition_rate_per_day rounded 0.8 Customers
@customer_acquisition_rate_per_month rounded 24.26 Customers
@sales_reps_needed 7
Viral Component
@k_value 0.05
@cost_to_sell_viral_dollars $1,048.68
@cost_to_market_viral_dollars $699.12
@viral_profit_per_customer_per_day $151.48
@viral_profit_per_customer_per_month $4,606.39
Administration
@fixed_costs_per_day $657.68
@fixed_costs_per_month (input) $20,000.00
@fixed_cost_increase_per_hundred_customers_per_day $32.88
@cost_of_debt_daily $0.00
@cost_of_debt_monthly $0.00
Valuations
@projection_period_dcf (input) 1,825 Days
@fct_projection_period $2,651.92
@int_fct_projection_period $967,951.77
@terminal_value $12,762,260.11
@int_pv_fcf_projection_period $4,510,128.48
@DCF_enterprise_value $17,272,388.59
@DCF_equity_value $17,282,388.59
@number_of_shares (input) 1,000,000 Shares
@share_price $17.28
@ebitda_multiple_market_cap $3,369,391.60
@ebitda_multiple_market_cap_fcf $7,353,362.70
@pe_multiple_market_cap $4,117,152.97
@ev_revenue_multiple_market_cap $4,117,152.97
@c_consumption $0.00
@t_profitability_day 12 Days
@t_profitability_month 1 Month
@positive_total_cash_day 0 Day
@positive_total_cash_month 0 Month
@cash below $0 day Cash is never $0
@additional_debt No additional debt needed
@return_on_starting_cash_day_365
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