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JZ Model

By: Jack Zuvelek
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Monthly Free Cash Flow vs. Time

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Revenue, Earnings, Cash, Tax vs. Time

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Customers vs. Time

Total amount of customers through time.

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New Renewal Customers vs. Time

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Share Price vs. Time - starting day 365

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Inputs
Starting State
cash_in_bank $0.00
assets $0.00
liabilities $0.00
customer_count 0
Product
realization_rate 93.0 %
price_of_offer $3,600.00
cost_to_fulfill 1.0 %
time_to_collect 365 Days
refund_period 60 Days
refund_rate 2.0 %
initial contract length/time to renew 365 Days
Renewals
churn_rate 10.0 %
price_of_renewal $3,600.00
cost_to_sell_renewal 2.0 %
cost_to_fulfill_renewal 1.0 %
time_to_collect_renewal 365 Days
renewal_rate_of_renewals 90.0 %
Sales and Martketing
cost_to_sell 15.0 %
time_to_sell 20 Days
average_deals_per_sales_rep_per_month 1.0
Non-Granular
customer_acquisition_rate_per_month 10
cost_to_market 10.0 %
time_to_market 2 Days
Granular
granular false
Administration
transaction_fee 2.9 %
fixed_costs_per_month $3,000.00
fixed_cost_increase_per_hundred_customers per month $2,000.00
upfront_investment_costs $0.00
debt $0.00
interest_rate 6.0 %
Viral Component
viral_component false
Valuations
tax_rate 0.0 %
inflation_rate 2.0 %
time_max 2500 Days
number_of_shares 1,000,000 Shares
DCF Method
projection_period_dcf 1825 Days
discount_rate 9.0 %
growth_rate 2.0 %
EBITDA Multiple Method
enterprise_multiple_ebitda 14.0
projection_period_ebitda 1825 Days
P/E Method
pe_multiple 22.0
projection_period_pe 1825 Days
Revenue Multiple Method
ev_revenue_multiple 20.0
projection_period_ev_revenue 1825 Days
Outputs
Product and Acquisition
@expected_value_of_offer_price $3,250.91
@cost_to_fulfill_dollars $32.51
@cost_to_market_dollars $325.09
@cost_to_sell_dollars $487.64
@customer_acquisition_cost $812.73
@expected_value_of_renewal_price $3,250.91
@cost_to_fulfill_renewal_dollars $36.00
@lifetime_value $33,480.00
Renewals
@cost_to_sell_renewal_dollars $72.00
@renewal_profit_per_customer_per_day $8.61
@renewal_profit_per_customer_per_month $261.85
Business Modelling
Granular
Blended
@customer_acquisition_cost $812.73
@contribution_after_marketing $2,405.67
@contribution_margin_before_marketing 99.0 %
@contribution_margin_after_marketing 74.0 %
@profit_per_customer_per_day $6.22
@customer_acquisition_rate_per_day rounded 0.33 Customers
@customer_acquisition_rate_per_month rounded 10.0 Customers
Administration
@fixed_costs_per_day $98.65
@fixed_costs_per_month (input) $3,000.00
@fixed_cost_increase_per_hundred_customers_per_day $65.77
@cost_of_debt_daily $0.00
@cost_of_debt_monthly $0.00
Valuations
@projection_period_dcf (input) 1,825 Days
@fct_projection_period $3,217.96
@int_fct_projection_period $1,262,890.03
@terminal_value $16,650,965.00
@int_pv_fcf_projection_period $2,817,012.86
@DCF_enterprise_value $19,467,977.86
@DCF_equity_value $19,467,977.86
@number_of_shares (input) 1,000,000 Shares
@share_price $19.47
@ebitda_multiple_market_cap $13,590,680.20
@ebitda_multiple_market_cap_fcf $16,623,361.64
@pe_multiple_market_cap $25,952,747.71
@ev_revenue_multiple_market_cap $23,593,407.01
@c_consumption $2,613.18
@t_profitability_day 54 Days
@t_profitability_month 2 Months
@positive_total_cash_day 108 Days
@positive_total_cash_month 4 Months
@cash below $0 day Day 1
@additional_debt -$2,613.18
@return_on_starting_cash_day_365
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