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OGL - First model

By: Omar Eddaoudi

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Monthly Free Cash Flow vs. Time

Revenue, Earnings, Cash, Tax vs. Time

Click Legend to Hide Data

Customers vs. Time

Total amount of customers through time.

New Renewal Customers vs. Time

Share Price vs. Time - starting day 365

Click Legend to Hide Data

New Outbound Customers vs. Time

Inputs
Starting State
cash_in_bank	$120,000.00
assets	$0.00
liabilities	$0.00
customer_count	11
Product
realization_rate	100.0 %
price_of_offer	$18,000.00
cost_to_fulfill	15.0 %
time_to_collect	180 Days
refund_period	60 Days
refund_rate	0.0 %
initial contract length/time to renew	180 Days
Renewals
churn_rate	20.0 %
price_of_renewal	$3,000.00
cost_to_sell_renewal	0.0 %
cost_to_fulfill_renewal	15.0 %
time_to_collect_renewal	1 Days
renewal_rate_of_renewals	99.0 %
Sales and Martketing
cost_to_sell	0.0 %
time_to_sell	20 Days
average_deals_per_sales_rep_per_month	4.0
Granular
granular	true
Outbound
outbound_salary	$0.00
number_of_contacts_per_month per sdr	1500
number_of_sdrs	1
outbound_contact_to_lead_conversion_rate	1.0 %
time_to_market_outbound	4 Days
lead_to_customer_conversion_rate_outbound	20.0 %
Administration
transaction_fee	2.9 %
fixed_costs_per_month	$4,500.00
fixed_cost_increase_per_hundred_customers per month	$0.00
upfront_investment_costs	$0.00
debt	$0.00
interest_rate	6.0 %
Viral Component
viral_component	false
Valuations
tax_rate	20.0 %
inflation_rate	2.0 %
time_max	2500 Days
number_of_shares	1,000,000 Shares
DCF Method
projection_period_dcf	1825 Days
discount_rate	9.0 %
growth_rate	2.0 %
EBITDA Multiple Method
enterprise_multiple_ebitda	14.0
projection_period_ebitda	1825 Days
P/E Method
pe_multiple	22.0
projection_period_pe	1825 Days
Revenue Multiple Method
ev_revenue_multiple	7.0
projection_period_ev_revenue	1825 Days

Outputs
Product and Acquisition
@expected_value_of_offer_price The average amount of money you actually collect from the client (after transaction fees).	$17,478.00
@cost_to_fulfill_dollars	$2,621.70
@cost_to_market_dollars	$0.00
@cost_to_sell_dollars	$0.00
@customer_acquisition_cost	$0.00
@expected_value_of_renewal_price	$2,913.00
@cost_to_fulfill_renewal_dollars	$450.00
@lifetime_value	$258,000.00
Renewals
@cost_to_sell_renewal_dollars	$0.00
@renewal_profit_per_customer_per_day	$2,463.00
@renewal_profit_per_customer_per_month	$74,899.83
Business Modelling
Granular
Outbound
@outbound_salary_per_day	$0.00
@number_of_contacts_per_day_per_sdr	49.33 Contacts
@total_salary per day	$0.00
@cost_per_100_contacts	$0.00
@outbound_contacts_dot per day Total number of contacts sent by all SDRs per day.	49.33 Contacts
@cost_per_lead_outbound	$0.00
@lead_dot_outbound per day Number of outbound leads created per month.	0.49 Leads
@lead_dot_outbound per month Number of outbound leads created per month.	15.0 Leads
@c_dot_outbound per day rounded Number of new customers created per month from outbound efforts.	0.1 Customers
@c_dot_outbound per month rounded Number of new customers created per month from outbound efforts.	3.0 Customers
@outbound_cost_per_customer Includes Cost to Sell	$0.00
Blended
@blended_lead_dot per day Number of new leads created per month from both inbound and outbound efforts.	0.49 Leads
@blended_lead_dot per month Number of new leads created per month from both inbound and outbound efforts.	15.0 Leads
@outbound_lead_ratio Ratio of outbound leads to inbound leads.	100.0 %
@inbound_lead_ratio	0.0 %
@organic_lead_ratio	0.0 %
@blended_cost_per_lead Average cost per lead from both inbound and outbound methods.	$0.00
@blended_lead_conversion_rate Average conversion rate from both inbound and outbound methods.	20.0 %
@c_dot_blended per day rounded Average number of new customers per month from both inbound and outbound methods.	0.1 Customers
@c_dot_blended per month rounded Average number of new customers per month from both inbound and outbound methods.	3.0 Customers
@time_to_market_blended Average amount of time to generate a lead from both inbound and outbound methods.	4.0 Days
@cost_to_market_blended Average cost to generate a lead from both inbound and outbound methods.	$0.00
@customer_acquisition_cost	$0.00
@contribution_after_marketing	$14,856.30
@contribution_margin_before_marketing	85.0 %
@contribution_margin_after_marketing	85.0 %
@profit_per_customer_per_day	$72.83
@customer_acquisition_rate_per_day rounded	0.1 Customers
@customer_acquisition_rate_per_month rounded	3.0 Customers
@sales_reps_needed	1
Administration
@fixed_costs_per_day	$147.98
@fixed_costs_per_month (input) The average monthly fixed costs for the business. This includes rent, computers, founder salaries, engineer salaries, etc.	$4,500.00
@fixed_cost_increase_per_hundred_customers_per_day	$0.00
@cost_of_debt_daily	$0.00
@cost_of_debt_monthly	$0.00
Valuations
@projection_period_dcf (input) The time period in which the cash flows are summed and discounted in the DCF model.	1,825 Days
@fct_projection_period	$2,629.44
@int_fct_projection_period	$993,264.57
@terminal_value	$13,096,004.56
@int_pv_fcf_projection_period	$3,239,195.32
@DCF_enterprise_value	$16,335,199.88
@DCF_equity_value The Market cap of the company, derived using Discounted Cash Flow valuation method. Market cap is defined as Enterprise Value+cash-debt.	$16,455,199.88
@number_of_shares (input) The number of shares of the business issued as defined in the shareholder agreement.	1,000,000 Shares
@share_price Price of a share, derived from DCF Market cap.	$16.46
@ebitda_multiple_market_cap	$14,158,228.24
@ebitda_multiple_market_cap_fcf	$17,565,108.13
@pe_multiple_market_cap	$23,252,312.68
@ev_revenue_multiple_market_cap	$7,480,281.31
@c_consumption The minimum point on the Cash graph. In reality this is additional amount of money needed to raise, for company not to go bankrupt. This is observed only on the projection period.	$0.00
@t_profitability_day Month in which the first day with a positive Free Cash Flow exists. If First positive FCF day is day 40, then t profitability day is 2 months.	1 Day
@t_profitability_month Month in which the first day with a positive Free Cash Flow exists. If First positive FCF day is day 40, then t profitability day is 2 months.	1 Month
@positive_total_cash_day	0 Day
@positive_total_cash_month	0 Month
@cash below $0 day The day at which the cash function intersects with x axis - the first point in time in days, where cash equals $0,	Cash is never $0
@additional_debt	No additional debt needed
@return_on_starting_cash_day_365

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