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Songbird Productions Model

By: Ousmane Toure
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Monthly Free Cash Flow vs. Time

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Revenue, Earnings, Cash, Tax vs. Time

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Customers vs. Time

Total amount of customers through time.

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New Renewal Customers vs. Time

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Share Price vs. Time - starting day 365

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Inputs
Starting State
cash_in_bank $22,000.00
assets $10,000.00
liabilities $6,000.00
customer_count 3
Product
realization_rate 100.0 %
price_of_offer $72,000.00
cost_to_fulfill 60.0 %
time_to_collect 365 Days
refund_period 0 Days
refund_rate 0.0 %
initial contract length/time to renew 365 Days
Renewals
churn_rate 0.0 %
price_of_renewal $72,000.00
cost_to_sell_renewal 0.0 %
cost_to_fulfill_renewal 60.0 %
time_to_collect_renewal 365 Days
renewal_rate_of_renewals 100.0 %
Sales and Martketing
cost_to_sell 15.0 %
time_to_sell 1 Days
average_deals_per_sales_rep_per_month 4.0
Non-Granular
customer_acquisition_rate_per_month 4
cost_to_market 5.0 %
time_to_market 15 Days
Granular
granular false
Administration
transaction_fee 2.9 %
fixed_costs_per_month $2,200.00
fixed_cost_increase_per_hundred_customers per month $55,000.00
upfront_investment_costs $10,000.00
debt $6,000.00
interest_rate 21.0 %
Viral Component
viral_component false
Valuations
tax_rate 22.0 %
inflation_rate 8.6 %
time_max 2500 Days
number_of_shares 1,000,000 Shares
DCF Method
projection_period_dcf 1825 Days
discount_rate 9.0 %
growth_rate 2.0 %
EBITDA Multiple Method
enterprise_multiple_ebitda 3.0
projection_period_ebitda 2500 Days
Outputs
Product and Acquisition
@expected_value_of_offer_price $69,912.00
@cost_to_fulfill_dollars $41,947.20
@cost_to_market_dollars $3,495.60
@cost_to_sell_dollars $10,486.80
@customer_acquisition_cost $13,982.40
@expected_value_of_renewal_price $69,912.00
@cost_to_fulfill_renewal_dollars $43,200.00
@lifetime_value $7,272,000.00
Renewals
@cost_to_sell_renewal_dollars $0.00
@renewal_profit_per_customer_per_day $73.18
@renewal_profit_per_customer_per_month $2,225.51
Business Modelling
Granular
Blended
@customer_acquisition_cost $13,982.40
@contribution_after_marketing $13,982.40
@contribution_margin_before_marketing 40.0 %
@contribution_margin_after_marketing 20.0 %
@profit_per_customer_per_day $36.70
@customer_acquisition_rate_per_day rounded 0.13 Customers
@customer_acquisition_rate_per_month rounded 4.0 Customers
Administration
@fixed_costs_per_day $72.34
@fixed_costs_per_month (input) $2,200.00
@fixed_cost_increase_per_hundred_customers_per_day $1,808.62
@cost_of_debt_daily $3.45
@cost_of_debt_monthly $104.98
Valuations
@projection_period_dcf (input) 1,825 Days
@fct_projection_period $6,368.63
@int_fct_projection_period $2,578,119.16
@terminal_value $24,438,834.36
@int_pv_fcf_projection_period $4,041,608.37
@DCF_enterprise_value $28,480,442.73
@DCF_equity_value $28,500,442.73
@number_of_shares (input) 1,000,000 Shares
@share_price $28.50
@ebitda_multiple_market_cap $7,529,685.82
@ebitda_multiple_market_cap_fcf $17,558,064.73
@c_consumption $0.00
@t_profitability_day 6 Days
@t_profitability_month 1 Month
@positive_total_cash_day 0 Day
@positive_total_cash_month 0 Month
@cash below $0 day Cash is never $0
@additional_debt No additional debt needed
@return_on_starting_cash_day_365
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