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STF, one time offer, $4K, annual membership

By: Josmar Tejeda
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Monthly Free Cash Flow vs. Time

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Revenue, Earnings, Cash, Tax vs. Time

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Customers vs. Time

Total amount of customers through time.

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New Renewal Customers vs. Time

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Share Price vs. Time - starting day 365

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New Outbound Customers vs. Time

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New Inbound Customers vs. Time

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New Viral Customers vs. Time

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Inputs
Starting State
cash_in_bank $0.00
assets $0.00
liabilities $0.00
customer_count 0
Product
realization_rate 92.0 %
price_of_offer $2,997.00
cost_to_fulfill 35.0 %
time_to_collect 365 Days
refund_period 0 Days
refund_rate 0.0 %
initial contract length/time to renew 365 Days
Renewals
churn_rate 30.0 %
price_of_renewal $997.00
cost_to_sell_renewal 25.0 %
cost_to_fulfill_renewal 5.0 %
time_to_collect_renewal 7 Days
renewal_rate_of_renewals 50.0 %
Sales and Martketing
cost_to_sell 40.0 %
time_to_sell 21 Days
average_deals_per_sales_rep_per_month 10.0
Granular
granular true
Outbound
outbound_salary $3,000.00
number_of_contacts_per_month per sdr 1000
number_of_sdrs 3
outbound_contact_to_lead_conversion_rate 30.0 %
time_to_market_outbound 30 Days
lead_to_customer_conversion_rate_outbound 8.0 %
Inbound
media_spend $10,000.00
Cost per thousand impressions $40.00
Click-through rate 0.7 %
funnel_conversion_rate 8.0 %
time_to_market_inbound 14 Days
lead_to_customer_conversion_rate_inbound 11.0 %
Organic
organic_views_per_month 200
organic_view_to_lead_conversion_rate 1.5 %
lead_to_customer_conversion_rate_organic 11.0 %
time_to_market_organic 14 Days
organic_cost_per_month $0.00
Administration
transaction_fee 3.0 %
fixed_costs_per_month $3,000.00
fixed_cost_increase_per_hundred_customers per month $1,500.00
upfront_investment_costs $36,000.00
debt $0.00
interest_rate 6.0 %
Viral Component
viral_component true
invites_per_customer 4.0
conversion_rate_per_invite 10.0
viral_time 30 Days
viral_start 180 Days
cost_to_sell_viral 20.0 %
cost_to_market_viral 0.0 %
Valuations
tax_rate 12.0 %
inflation_rate 5.0 %
time_max 1825 Days
number_of_shares 1 Shares
DCF Method
projection_period_dcf 730 Days
discount_rate 9.0 %
growth_rate 3.0 %
EBITDA Multiple Method
enterprise_multiple_ebitda 14.41
projection_period_ebitda 1500 Days
P/E Method
pe_multiple 14.41
projection_period_pe 720 Days
Revenue Multiple Method
ev_revenue_multiple 14.41
projection_period_ev_revenue 1800 Days
Outputs
Product and Acquisition
@expected_value_of_offer_price $2,674.52
@cost_to_fulfill_dollars $936.08
@cost_to_market_dollars $216.55
@cost_to_sell_dollars $1,069.81
@customer_acquisition_cost $1,286.36
@expected_value_of_renewal_price $889.72
@cost_to_fulfill_renewal_dollars $49.85
@lifetime_value $4,041.38
Renewals
@cost_to_sell_renewal_dollars $249.25
@renewal_profit_per_customer_per_day $84.37
@renewal_profit_per_customer_per_month $2,565.83
Business Modelling
Granular
Outbound
@outbound_salary_per_day $98.65
@number_of_contacts_per_day_per_sdr 32.88 Contacts
@total_salary per day $295.96
@cost_per_100_contacts $300.00
@outbound_contacts_dot per day 98.65 Contacts
@cost_per_lead_outbound $10.00
@lead_dot_outbound per day 29.6 Leads
@lead_dot_outbound per month 900.0 Leads
@c_dot_outbound per day rounded 2.37 Customers
@c_dot_outbound per month rounded 72.0 Customers
@outbound_cost_per_customer $0.00
Inbound
@media_spend_per_day $328.84
@lead_dot_inbound per day 4.6 Leads
@lead_dot_inbound per month 140.0 Leads
@cost_per_lead_inbound $71.43
@c_dot_inbound per day rounded 0.51 Customers
@c_dot_inbound per month rounded 15.4 Customers
@cost_per_click $5.71
@inbound_cost_per_customer $0.00
Organic
@organic_views_per_day per day 6.58
@organic_views_per_month per month (input) 200
@lead_dot_organic per day 0.1 Leads
@lead_dot_organic per month 3.0 Leads
@c_dot_organic per day rounded 0.01 Customers
@c_dot_organic per month rounded 0.33 Customers
@organic_cost_per_month (input) $0.00
@organic_cost_per_day $0.00
@organic_cost_per_lead $0.00
@organic_cost_per_customer $0.00
Blended
@blended_lead_dot per day 34.3 Leads
@blended_lead_dot per month 1043.0 Leads
@outbound_lead_ratio 86.29 %
@inbound_lead_ratio 13.42 %
@organic_lead_ratio 0.29 %
@blended_cost_per_lead $18.21
@blended_lead_conversion_rate 8.41 %
@c_dot_blended per day rounded 2.88 Customers
@c_dot_blended per month rounded 87.73 Customers
@time_to_market_blended 28.0 Days
@cost_to_market_blended $216.55
@customer_acquisition_cost $1,286.36
@contribution_after_marketing $452.08
@contribution_margin_before_marketing 65.0 %
@contribution_margin_after_marketing 16.9 %
@profit_per_customer_per_day $1.09
@customer_acquisition_rate_per_day rounded 2.88 Customers
@customer_acquisition_rate_per_month rounded 87.73 Customers
@sales_reps_needed 9
Viral Component
@k_value 0.4
@cost_to_sell_viral_dollars $534.90
@cost_to_market_viral_dollars $0.00
@viral_profit_per_customer_per_day $3.30
@viral_profit_per_customer_per_month $100.27
Administration
@fixed_costs_per_day $98.65
@fixed_costs_per_month (input) $3,000.00
@fixed_cost_increase_per_hundred_customers_per_day $49.33
@cost_of_debt_daily $0.00
@cost_of_debt_monthly $0.00
Valuations
@projection_period_dcf (input) 730 Days
@fct_projection_period $3,521.63
@int_fct_projection_period $1,371,820.98
@terminal_value $21,308,699.31
@int_pv_fcf_projection_period $1,163,375.90
@DCF_enterprise_value $22,472,075.21
@DCF_equity_value $22,472,075.21
@number_of_shares (input) 1 Shares
@share_price $22,472,075.21
@ebitda_multiple_market_cap $18,785,269.62
@ebitda_multiple_market_cap_fcf $22,392,336.59
@pe_multiple_market_cap $22,915,760.74
@ev_revenue_multiple_market_cap $31,087,879.59
@c_consumption $38,767.98
@t_profitability_day 58 Days
@t_profitability_month 2 Months
@positive_total_cash_day 254 Days
@positive_total_cash_month 9 Months
@cash below $0 day Day 0
@additional_debt -$38,767.98
@return_on_starting_cash_day_365
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