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Test 6

By: Tran Manh Duc
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Monthly Free Cash Flow vs. Time

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Revenue, Earnings, Cash, Tax vs. Time

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Customers vs. Time

Total amount of customers through time.

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New Renewal Customers vs. Time

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Share Price vs. Time - starting day 365

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New Outbound Customers vs. Time

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New Inbound Customers vs. Time

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New Viral Customers vs. Time

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Inputs
Starting State
cash_in_bank $5,000.00
assets $1,000.00
liabilities $500.00
customer_count 100
Product
realization_rate 93.0 %
price_of_offer $5,000.00
cost_to_fulfill 10.0 %
time_to_collect 300 Days
refund_period 60 Days
refund_rate 2.0 %
initial contract length/time to renew 365 Days
Renewals
churn_rate 50.0 %
price_of_renewal $7,000.00
cost_to_sell_renewal 10.0 %
cost_to_fulfill_renewal 10.0 %
time_to_collect_renewal 30 Days
renewal_rate_of_renewals 50.0 %
Sales and Martketing
cost_to_sell 15.0 %
time_to_sell 20 Days
average_deals_per_sales_rep_per_month 2.0
Granular
granular true
Outbound
outbound_salary $3,000.00
number_of_contacts_per_month per sdr 2000
number_of_sdrs 40
outbound_contact_to_lead_conversion_rate 2.0 %
time_to_market_outbound 11 Days
lead_to_customer_conversion_rate_outbound 8.0 %
Inbound
media_spend $50,000.00
Cost per thousand impressions $55.00
Click-through rate 1.0 %
funnel_conversion_rate 2.0 %
time_to_market_inbound 3 Days
lead_to_customer_conversion_rate_inbound 8.0 %
Organic
organic_views_per_month 5000
organic_view_to_lead_conversion_rate 30.0 %
lead_to_customer_conversion_rate_organic 5.0 %
time_to_market_organic 20 Days
organic_cost_per_month $0.00
Administration
transaction_fee 1.0 %
fixed_costs_per_month $100.00
fixed_cost_increase_per_hundred_customers per month $2.00
upfront_investment_costs $20.00
debt $50.00
interest_rate 6.0 %
Viral Component
viral_component true
invites_per_customer 10.0
conversion_rate_per_invite 5.0
viral_time 20 Days
viral_start 5 Days
cost_to_sell_viral 15.0 %
cost_to_market_viral 10.0 %
Valuations
tax_rate 22.0 %
inflation_rate 2.0 %
time_max 2500 Days
number_of_shares 1,000,000 Shares
DCF Method
projection_period_dcf 1825 Days
discount_rate 9.0 %
growth_rate 2.0 %
EBITDA Multiple Method
enterprise_multiple_ebitda 14.0
projection_period_ebitda 1825 Days
P/E Method
pe_multiple 22.0
projection_period_pe 1825 Days
Revenue Multiple Method
ev_revenue_multiple 7.0
projection_period_ev_revenue 1825 Days
Outputs
Product and Acquisition
@expected_value_of_offer_price $4,603.50
@cost_to_fulfill_dollars $460.35
@cost_to_market_dollars $781.41
@cost_to_sell_dollars $690.53
@customer_acquisition_cost $1,471.94
@expected_value_of_renewal_price $6,444.90
@cost_to_fulfill_renewal_dollars $700.00
@lifetime_value $11,160.00
Renewals
@cost_to_sell_renewal_dollars $700.00
@renewal_profit_per_customer_per_day $168.16
@renewal_profit_per_customer_per_month $5,113.85
Business Modelling
Granular
Outbound
@outbound_salary_per_day $98.65
@number_of_contacts_per_day_per_sdr 65.77 Contacts
@total_salary per day $3,946.07
@cost_per_100_contacts $150.00
@outbound_contacts_dot per day 2630.71 Contacts
@cost_per_lead_outbound $75.00
@lead_dot_outbound per day 52.61 Leads
@lead_dot_outbound per month 1600.0 Leads
@c_dot_outbound per day rounded 4.21 Customers
@c_dot_outbound per month rounded 128.0 Customers
@outbound_cost_per_customer $0.00
Inbound
@media_spend_per_day $1,644.20
@lead_dot_inbound per day 5.98 Leads
@lead_dot_inbound per month 181.82 Leads
@cost_per_lead_inbound $275.00
@c_dot_inbound per day rounded 0.48 Customers
@c_dot_inbound per month rounded 14.55 Customers
@cost_per_click $5.50
@inbound_cost_per_customer $0.00
Organic
@organic_views_per_day per day 164.42
@organic_views_per_month per month (input) 5000
@lead_dot_organic per day 49.33 Leads
@lead_dot_organic per month 1500.0 Leads
@c_dot_organic per day rounded 2.47 Customers
@c_dot_organic per month rounded 75.0 Customers
@organic_cost_per_month (input) $0.00
@organic_cost_per_day $0.00
@organic_cost_per_lead $0.00
@organic_cost_per_customer $0.00
Blended
@blended_lead_dot per day 107.92 Leads
@blended_lead_dot per month 3281.82 Leads
@outbound_lead_ratio 48.75 %
@inbound_lead_ratio 5.54 %
@organic_lead_ratio 45.71 %
@blended_cost_per_lead $51.80
@blended_lead_conversion_rate 6.63 %
@c_dot_blended per day rounded 7.15 Customers
@c_dot_blended per month rounded 217.54 Customers
@time_to_market_blended 15.0 Days
@cost_to_market_blended $781.41
@customer_acquisition_cost $1,471.94
@contribution_after_marketing $2,671.21
@contribution_margin_before_marketing 90.0 %
@contribution_margin_after_marketing 58.03 %
@profit_per_customer_per_day $7.97
@customer_acquisition_rate_per_day rounded 7.15 Customers
@customer_acquisition_rate_per_month rounded 217.54 Customers
@sales_reps_needed 109
Viral Component
@k_value 0.5
@cost_to_sell_viral_dollars $690.53
@cost_to_market_viral_dollars $460.35
@viral_profit_per_customer_per_day $9.97
@viral_profit_per_customer_per_month $303.32
Administration
@fixed_costs_per_day $3.29
@fixed_costs_per_month (input) $100.00
@fixed_cost_increase_per_hundred_customers_per_day $0.07
@cost_of_debt_daily $0.01
@cost_of_debt_monthly $0.25
Valuations
@projection_period_dcf (input) 1,825 Days
@fct_projection_period -$3.30
@int_fct_projection_period -$1,204.10
@terminal_value -$15,875.83
@int_pv_fcf_projection_period $99,383.49
@DCF_enterprise_value $83,507.66
@DCF_equity_value $88,957.66
@number_of_shares (input) 1,000,000 Shares
@share_price $0.09
@ebitda_multiple_market_cap -$9,723.62
@ebitda_multiple_market_cap_fcf $87,964.48
@pe_multiple_market_cap $5,450.00
@ev_revenue_multiple_market_cap $5,450.00
@c_consumption $0.00
@t_profitability_day 1 Day
@t_profitability_month 1 Month
@positive_total_cash_day 0 Day
@positive_total_cash_month 0 Month
@cash below $0 day Cash is never $0
@additional_debt No additional debt needed
@return_on_starting_cash_day_365
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