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SA Referral Model

By: Patrick Brennan

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Monthly Free Cash Flow vs. Time

Revenue, Earnings, Cash, Tax vs. Time

Click Legend to Hide Data

Customers vs. Time

Total amount of customers through time.

New Renewal Customers vs. Time

Share Price vs. Time - starting day 365

Click Legend to Hide Data

Inputs
Starting State
cash_in_bank	$0.00
assets	$0.00
liabilities	$0.00
customer_count	100
Product
realization_rate	100.0 %
price_of_offer	$197.00
cost_to_fulfill	10.0 %
time_to_collect	30 Days
refund_period	1 Days
refund_rate	0.0 %
initial contract length/time to renew	30 Days
Renewals
churn_rate	10.0 %
price_of_renewal	$197.00
cost_to_sell_renewal	3.0 %
cost_to_fulfill_renewal	10.0 %
time_to_collect_renewal	1 Days
renewal_rate_of_renewals	90.0 %
Sales and Martketing
cost_to_sell	3.0 %
time_to_sell	1 Days
average_deals_per_sales_rep_per_month	3.0
Non-Granular
customer_acquisition_rate_per_month	50
cost_to_market	0.0 %
time_to_market	0 Days
Granular
granular	false
Administration
transaction_fee	2.9 %
fixed_costs_per_month	$0.00
fixed_cost_increase_per_hundred_customers per month	$2,800.00
upfront_investment_costs	$0.00
debt	$0.00
interest_rate	0.0 %
Viral Component
viral_component	false
Valuations
tax_rate	22.0 %
inflation_rate	9.0 %
time_max	1700 Days
number_of_shares	1,000,000 Shares
DCF Method
projection_period_dcf	1095 Days
discount_rate	9.0 %
growth_rate	2.0 %
EBITDA Multiple Method
enterprise_multiple_ebitda	14.0
projection_period_ebitda	1095 Days
P/E Method
pe_multiple	22.0
projection_period_pe	1095 Days
Revenue Multiple Method
ev_revenue_multiple	10.0
projection_period_ev_revenue	1095 Days

Outputs
Product and Acquisition
@expected_value_of_offer_price The average amount of money you actually collect from the client (after transaction fees).	$191.29
@cost_to_fulfill_dollars	$19.13
@cost_to_market_dollars	$0.00
@cost_to_sell_dollars	$5.74
@customer_acquisition_cost	$5.74
@expected_value_of_renewal_price	$191.29
@cost_to_fulfill_renewal_dollars	$19.70
@lifetime_value	$1,970.00
Renewals
@cost_to_sell_renewal_dollars	$5.91
@renewal_profit_per_customer_per_day	$165.68
@renewal_profit_per_customer_per_month	$5,038.24
Business Modelling
Granular
Blended
@customer_acquisition_cost	$5.74
@contribution_after_marketing	$166.42
@contribution_margin_before_marketing	90.0 %
@contribution_margin_after_marketing	87.0 %
@profit_per_customer_per_day	$5.37
@customer_acquisition_rate_per_day rounded	1.64 Customers
@customer_acquisition_rate_per_month rounded	50.0 Customers
Administration
@fixed_costs_per_day	$0.00
@fixed_costs_per_month (input) The average monthly fixed costs for the business. This includes rent, computers, founder salaries, engineer salaries, etc.	$0.00
@fixed_cost_increase_per_hundred_customers_per_day	$92.07
@cost_of_debt_daily	$0.00
@cost_of_debt_monthly	$0.00
Valuations
@projection_period_dcf (input) The time period in which the cash flows are summed and discounted in the DCF model.	1,095 Days
@fct_projection_period	$611.33
@int_fct_projection_period	$156,647.63
@terminal_value	$1,742,532.57
@int_pv_fcf_projection_period	$852,772.90
@DCF_enterprise_value	$2,595,305.47
@DCF_equity_value The Market cap of the company, derived using Discounted Cash Flow valuation method. Market cap is defined as Enterprise Value+cash-debt.	$2,595,305.47
@number_of_shares (input) The number of shares of the business issued as defined in the shareholder agreement.	1,000,000 Shares
@share_price Price of a share, derived from DCF Market cap.	$2.60
@ebitda_multiple_market_cap	$3,865,795.89
@ebitda_multiple_market_cap_fcf	$5,257,326.16
@pe_multiple_market_cap	$16,114,607.46
@ev_revenue_multiple_market_cap	$7,324,821.57
@c_consumption The minimum point on the Cash graph. In reality this is additional amount of money needed to raise, for company not to go bankrupt. This is observed only on the projection period.	$0.00
@t_profitability_day Month in which the first day with a positive Free Cash Flow exists. If First positive FCF day is day 40, then t profitability day is 2 months.	1 Day
@t_profitability_month Month in which the first day with a positive Free Cash Flow exists. If First positive FCF day is day 40, then t profitability day is 2 months.	1 Month
@positive_total_cash_day	1 Day
@positive_total_cash_month	1 Month
@cash below $0 day The day at which the cash function intersects with x axis - the first point in time in days, where cash equals $0,	Cash is never $0
@additional_debt	No additional debt needed
@return_on_starting_cash_day_365	0.0 %

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